consignment louis vuitton bags: 十一月 2013

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Like your poker winnings and fantasy teams, nobody cares about your NCAA basketball tournament bracket.fake chanel shoes Unless you are the President of the United States. Barack Obama has a squad of professional scribes devoted to tracking his every waking movement. Surely he knows his March Madness picks are laden with meaning. As any veteran Bracketologist knows, there are as many ways to fill out an office pool as there are permutations, and none of them are surefire guarantees of success.loui vuitton You can choose based on geography or rooting interest. You can tap teams with the best mascots or uniforms. I have a friend (a graduate of Harvard, which is making its first tournament appearance in 66 years) who divined winners based on the school’s academic prowess — an abysmal strategy on its face, but one that happened to work. Then there is the prevailing formula, which is to select according to seed.cheap gucci belts In gambling parlance, this is known as chalking. It involves betting almost exclusively on heavy favorites, and it is, generally speaking, a smart yet boring way to do pretty well. In a riff titled “What Your Bracket Says About You,” one writer posits that gamblers who chalk “feel that societal order must be preserved at all costs, and that disagreeing with the wisdom of the selection committee is the first step toward anarchy. Upsets are for hippies.louis vuitton outlet online” Obama’s bracket is really chalky. His picks are so vanilla they make Mitt Romney look wild. His Final Four is composed entirely of two #1 seeds and two #2′s widely considered better than their quadrant’s top dogs. Just one minor outlier (#3 seed Baylor) disrupts the favorites’ dominance by crashing the Elite Eight.loui vuitton Obama’s bracket has only two putative upsets, and neither exactly goes out on a limb. In the South regional, he picks #12 Virginia Commonwealth to oust #5 Wichita State in the first round. There’s been a 12-over-5 upset every year in NCAA history but three, and after a run to the NCAA Finals last spring, VCU is as good a choice as any. In the Midwest bracket, Obama picks #11 seed North Carolina State to top #6 San Diego State (despite the lower seed, the Vegas sharps favor NC State) and then to go on to beat #3 seed Georgetown in the second round.cheap gucci belts Georgetown is a Jesuit school in a tony precinct of Washington, D.C., a city that counts few fans among the President’s constituents. Which brings us to the other notable aspect of Obama’s bracket: it is a masterpiece of harmless pandering.louis vuitton backpack for sale The President is a believer in “momentum” and point guards, he tells ESPN’s Andy Katz, but he also has a thing for schools in swing states. Three of his Final Four picks — Ohio State, Missouri and North Carolina — hail from November battlegrounds. As does NC State, his lone true upset. One wonders whether his selections in other stray toss-up games (New Mexico over Louisville; Iowa State over Connecticut) were subtly influenced by the Electoral College map.louis vuitton belts On Tuesday night, he schlepped British Prime Minister David Cameron on a quick jaunt to Dayton, where the two world leaders sat courtside at a preliminary bout between tournament welterweights Mississippi Valley State and Western Kentucky. “The heartland is what it’s all about,” he gushed to one reporter. Obama is a genuine basketball fan who knows his stuff. So Tar Heel fans should be heartened that he picked Roy Williams’ team to cut down the nets in New Orleans.louis vuitton shoes replica Last year his bracket ranked in the 87th percentile among ESPN entrants, and his re-election campaign is holding its own bracket challenge this time around. It’s a nice way to remind voters you’re a regular guy. Particularly the voters he really wants in November. As for Mitt Romney, Obama’s likely rival, he told a reporter he wasn’t “plugged-in well enough” to fill out a sheet this year.louis vuitton outlet online Which is probably best. It’s impossible to please everybody.
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Washington rolled out the red carpet for David Cameron this week.chanel outlet? President Obama feted the?British Prime Minister with a 19-gun salute, a White House banquet, a joint press conference in the Rose Garden and a trip to Ohio on Air Force One for an NCAA March madness basketball game (at which Cameron looked mostly confused as Obama explained the rules). The visit, in contrast to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu??s tense reception last week, has been marked by the casual air between two men– ??Barack?? and ??David,?? they call each other–who seem to genuinely get along.? In fact, the trip has been so drama-free, it??s hardly made news in the U.S.fake louis vuitton shoes ESPN reported that Obama attended the basketball game, but declined to mention Cameron??s presence. And most U.S. papers met everything from Obama and Cameron’s joint op-ed and their statements of unity on NATO and the economy to their jokes and banter with a shrug.loui vuitton Cameron??s visit did not make the front page of any major U.S. paper, nor even Roll Call, Politico or The Hill. And the only real news made from the press conference was that despite several weeks of missteps in Afghanistan, both leaders remained committed to the current withdrawal timeline.gucci outlet online In other words: The news was that there’s no news. That said, Cameron??s visit has made great television fodder, from Tuesday??s basketball game to Wednesday??s White House pomp. And, really, that??s what both sides want out of this trip: a great photo to take home. For Obama, bringing the conservative British prime minister to Ohio ?? a swing state ?? flaunts his foreign policy credentials and underlines how he??s improved America??s image abroad.louis vuitton speedy It??s notable that Cameron didn??t meet with any of the Republican candidates while here (though, where would he draw the line? Just meeting with Mitt Romney might show favoritism and a photo of Cameron and Rick Santorum together would only get Cameron in more trouble with British women at home), making it almost seem like Cameron was endorsing Obama for a second term. From the British perspective, Obama remains more popular in the U.K. than in the U.fake louis vuittonS. and a dose of Obama love can only bolster Cameron. The love was palpable in Obama??s remarks at the arrival ceremony: It??s now been 200 years since the British came here, to the White House — under somewhat different circumstances.? (Laughter.louis vuitton replica)? They made quite an impression.? (Laughter.)? They really lit up the place.? (Laughter.louis vuitton neverfull)? But we moved on.? (Laughter.)? And today, like so many Presidents and Prime Ministers before us, we meet to reaffirm one of the greatest alliances the world has ever known. This visit is also an opportunity to reciprocate the extraordinary and gracious hospitality shown to us by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, by David and Samantha, and by the British people during our visit to London last year.ugg boots outlet? And we are proud that this visit comes as Her Majesty begins her Diamond Jubilee, celebrating 60 extraordinary years on the British throne.? (Applause.) It is remarkable to consider:? Down the decades we’ve seen nations rise and fall; wars fought and peace defended; a city divided, a wall come down; countries imprisoned behind an Iron Curtain, then liberated.? We’ve seen the demise of a Cold War and the rise of new threats; the transition from an Industrial Revolution to an Information Age where new technologies empower our citizens and our adversaries like never before.gucci handbag for sale? Our world has been transformed over and over, and it will be again.? Yet, through the grand sweep of history, through all its twists and turns, there is one constant — the rock-solid alliance between the United States and the United Kingdom.? (Applause.) And the reason is simple.replica gucci shoes? We stand together and we work together and we bleed together and we build together, in good times and in bad, because when we do, our nations are more secure, our people are more prosperous, and the world is a safer and better and more just place.? Our alliance is essential — it is indispensable — to the security and prosperity that we seek not only for our own citizens, but for people around the world. And that is why, as President, I’ve made strengthening this alliance and our alliances around the world one of my highest foreign policy priorities.? And because we have, I can stand here today and say with pride and with confidence — and I believe with David’s agreement — that the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is the strongest that it has ever been.fake chanel shoes? (Applause.
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The massacre of sixteen Afghan civilians near Kandahar has thrust Afghanistan back into the political debate.fake ugg boots (Yes, there is a real war going on, and it’s not the one for bound delegates in Tampa.) For a moment early this week it looked like we might be near a tipping point, at which Republicans could lunge to Obama’s left on the war. Newt Gingrich proclaimed Afghanistan “not doable,” while Rick Santorum said we should either double down with more resources or “probably get out sooner” than planned. Mitt Romney, true to form, played it more cagily, cautioning against a rush to change policy based on a single demented act.chanel outlet But even Romney said that “we should on a regular basis reassess what’s happening in Afghanistan,” which was not exactly a cry for death or glory. Yes, the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll shows that Republicans are evenly divided about whether the Afghanistan war is worth fighting, the first time that poll has failed to find majority support for the war among GOPers. But it’s not clear we’re about to see the party’s leaders start calling for a rapid exit from the Hindu Kush. For starters, Josh Rogin details the efforts of Republican hawks on the Hill, like John McCain and Lindsey Graham, to beat back talk of an accelerated withdrawal.fake uggs Nor do either of the two presidential candidates who still matter, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, seem to be shifting significantly. Last night Santorum told Fox’s Greta van Susteren that Obama’s plan is “doomed to failure,” but that he would follow a “completely different strategy in Afghanistan and would be successful in executing that plan.” He also bashed Obama for setting withdrawal timelines that could encourage the Taliban and makes our allies “hedge their bets.” Likewise, in CBS interview yesterday, Romney called Obama’s timelines a mistake.gucci handbag for sale Opposing timelines runs against public opinion on the war. But it also puts Republicans in their preferred role of alignment with the Pentagon brass, which has a symbolic political power of its own. That’s probably why Romney likes to cite Petraeus’s public difference of opinion with Obama over drawing down the 2009 surge forces. But this could be a dangerous game for Republicans.replica louis vuitton In 2008, John McCain constantly cited the military men–including Petraeus himself–who cautioned against setting a deadline for our exit from Iraq, and argued that Obama’s withdrawal plan was reckless and dangerous. Obama seemed to get the best of that argument. When it comes to Afghanistan, he must be hoping that history will repeat itself. Read more about Obama’s timeline for withdrawal in the new issue of TIME, now available online to subscribers and hitting newsstands Friday.fake louis vuitton
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Biden will hold an opening ceremony for Obama’s overt campaign against Republicans.fake chanel shoes Why Santorum is outperforming the polls. Gingrich is tired of everything being “methodically and deliberately stupid.” Romney donors just want this thing over with already. Ross Douthat is tired of pretending it won’t be Mitt.replica gucci shoes Ben Bernanke, reviled hero. Anonymous national Democrats grumble about Elizabeth Warren’s campaign. Why black politicians aren’t getting elected to statewide office. With 16 days before key measure expire, the Senate has sent its bipartisan transportation bill to the House.fake louis vuitton The latest jobs bill has stalled out over a tiny export credit. And Santorum invents law, tells Puerto Rico about it.
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Pop quiz: What’s the difference between an Obama campaign event and an Obama White House event? Answer: At a White House event, Republicans are called “folks” or “politicians.fake gucci shoes” At a campaign event, names are named. Vice President Joe Biden, speaking at a campaign event Thursday in Toledo, wasted no time in giving some free press to his foes battling in the Republican nomination fight. “I want to tell you what is real bankruptcy,” he said at one point. “The economic theories of Gingrich, Santorum and Romney.louis vuitton backpack for sale” At another point, he let fly this zinger: “You know it’s kind of amazing. Gingrich, Romney and Santorum–They don’t let facts get in the way.” It was no-holds-barred political rhetoric, well timed and placed in North Ohio, just a few miles from the Michigan border. As a messaging stunt, it was designed to lay down a marker in the battle for white working class voters in the Midwest: The Obama campaign, well aware of its troubles, plans to win back voters by focusing on the successful government-backed automobile bailout that President Obama championed in 2009.replica gucci shoes But the most important part of the speech, in the long run, may not have come until the final lines, when Biden, in an attempt to rouse the crowd to a triumphant ovation, promised everything is about to be alright. “It??s not just the auto industry that is coming back,” Biden said. “Manufacturing is coming back. America is coming back.fake ugg boots” This is not the first time the Obama team has used this language. As Helene Cooper pointed out recently, it has become a regular theme of the President’s messaging. Obama said “America is back” during the State of the Union, and a few weeks ago declared that “The American auto industry is back.” Declaring the return of American greatness has become a tic, almost as frequent as Mitt Romney’s tendency to declare, without any clear evidence, that Obama made the recession worse.louis vuitton speedy The claim is far more aspirational than it is descriptive, and it represents a big risk for the Obama campaign. After all, declarations that America had climbed “out of the ditch” in 2010 performed poorly. Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg called the metaphor “unconvincing, too light-hearted, backward looking and out of touch.” “People thought they were still in the ditch,” he wrote in a 2011 analysis.ugg boots outlet Greenberg argues that sounding off-key and out of touch hurt Obama’s party, and threatens to do it again. By most measures, America, today, is not exactly back–but it is improving. According to Gallup, U.S.fake gucci shoes satisfaction with the direction of the country is at a 10-month high, but it is still pretty dismal. Just 26% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country, less than half as many as held that view at the start of 2004. In other words, when Biden declares America is back, he is no as much describing reality as trying to persuade 74% of the country that they are mistaken. Economic confidence is also at a four-year high, which is good news for the President, but not exactly evidence that the country is back.fake ugg boots When asked to say whether the nation’s economy is getting worse, or getting better, Americans still say getting worse by a 10 point margin. When asked to rate the current state of the economy, “excellent” and “good” still lose to “poor” by 25 points. There is no doubt about what the Obama campaign is doing here. They are mounting a massive persuasion campaign to convince the country of something it does not yet believe.louis vuitton shoes replica The strategists in Chicago and the White House feel this is a necessity. As I reported last August, the Obama inner circle sees two requirements for winning reelection: Persuading the country that the future is bright, and persuading the country that Republicans would make it worse. Despite huge headwinds, they are determined to make both sales. The America is back rhetoric could expose Obama if the economy once again falters over the coming months, and growth and confidence slows.louis vuitton belts It could also set a trap for Romney, Santorum or Gingrich. They all have an interest in making this election about the ongoing misery and fear that still grips the country. But at the same time, optimists always win the White House. No one likes to vote for a downer.louis vuitton neverfull
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John Zahm has his hands full.handbags louis vuitton He is the only paid campaign staffer for Rick Santorum in the entire state of Illinois, which hosts the next crucial clash in the Republican nominating contest on Tuesday. A local Tea Party leader and homeschooling advocate who worked for Mike Huckabee in 2008, Zahm was?hired two days before Christmas. Part of his brief was to carry out a key assignment: Get Santorum on the ballot in Illinois. It almost didn’t happen.replica gucci shoes Illinois is an unlikely battleground for Republicans. It hasn’t hosted a pivotal GOP primary since the 1980s. It’s a blue state that’s home to the incumbent Democratic President. But south of I-80, far from the Chicago sprawl, the Land of Lincoln is mostly cornfields and small towns, with a deeply conservative electorate that mirrors parts of neighboring Iowa or rural Ohio.louis vuitton handbags for sale Despite being outgunned and out-organized in the state, Zahm and some 400 volunteers have put Santorum in position to potentially ride a wave of grassroots passion to an upset victory. (MORE: The Santorum Conundrum by Mark Halperin) A recent Chicago Tribune poll showed Santorum nipping at Romney’s heels, but when Zahm first joined the team, the former Pennsylvania Senator was still running a meager one-state campaign in Iowa. Zahm struggled mightily to gather the 600 signatures required to get Santorum on the ballot in each of Illinois’ 18 congressional districts. In three districts, he didn’t even try to make the ballot; in a fourth, a volunteer mishandled the filing.chanel outlet Pundits have snickered at these failures, which render the candidate ineligible for 10 of the 54 delegates awarded on Tuesday. But it could have been much worse. Santorum actually fell short of the signature threshold in 14 of 18 districts, which led the Romney campaign to file a challenge with Illinois’ State Board of Elections. Santorum’s organizational struggles have hampered him throughout his campaign.louis vuitton handbags for sale He ran into similar delegate trouble in Ohio and failed to qualify for the ballot entirely in Virginia. But shortly after the challenge was filed, Romney’s team withdrew it in 10 of 14 districts, a decision that caused consternation among Romney allies after Santorum’s Southern sweep on March 13 heightened the stakes in Illinois. What happened? Zahm says Romney’s camp withdrew the challenge after he submitted one of his own, charging that Romney had improperly notarized his candidacy in the state. “I had Romney on the technicality of the notary,” says Zahm.fake louis vuitton Jim Tenuto, an official with the Illinois Board of Elections, says that the two campaigns probably negotiated a mutual withdrawal. “There must have been an agreement worked out, because Santorum is allowed to appear on the ballot even though he’s below the minimum number of signatures,” he says. (MORE: How Romney Can Win) With 69 delegates at stake in Illinois ?? 54 apportioned by district, plus 15 chosen at the state convention in June ?? Santorum’s forfeiture of 10 delegates isn’t disastrous. But he’ll have to fight hard to win a majority.chanel outlet Romney is pouring resources into Illinois to stanch the bleeding from his recent bad night down South. Reuters suggests the campaign and its allied super PAC have spent nearly $5 million in Illinois already. The campaign has rolled out a laundry list of supporters as a testament to its deep institutional backing. “Romney’s by far the best organized,” says Pat Brady, the Illinois GOP chairman.handbags louis vuitton Brady, who supports Romney, says the former Massachusetts governor will rack up his margin in the vote-rich suburbs of Cook County ?? some 70% of Republicans are based in the Chicago area ?? and in a narrow band of turf that runs west to Wheaton and north to the Wisconsin border, home to a more moderate Republican electorate for whom fiscal issues trump social ones. The model for a Romney win, Brady says, is that of Senator Mark Kirk, who rode an economic message to a victory in 2010. “The state is just a train wreck fiscally,” Brady says. “People are looking for solutions.louis vuitton handbags for sale” (MORE: Santorum??s Southern Sweep Sets Up Long Showdown with Romney) But if Romney is well-positioned in the more moderate urban areas, Santorum stands to win the vast rural swaths of the state, which are more conservative albeit more sparsely populated. “I believe we’re going to win everywhere outside the city of Chicago,” says Zahm. Throughout the GOP primary season, Santorum has won the majority of rural counties while Romney has gobbled up votes in population centers. It was Romney’s support in urban areas that allowed him to narrowly outpace Santorum’s countryside domination in Ohio, swinging the state to Romney.fake uggs But in Illinois, momentum is on Santorum’s side. His fundraising has improved in the wake of Tuesday’s victories in Alabama and Mississippi. On Thursday, the Santorum-allied Red, White and Blue Fund dropped $310,000 on a new TV ad that hits Romney on fiscal issues and health care. His team is hopeful that a grassroots groundswell will be enough to put him over the top in the next big primary.chanel handbags for sale And Zahm is confident. “The so-called liberal Republican is a dinosaur here nowadays,” he says.
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Romney viewed less favorably and with less enthusiasm than McCain was in 2008.fake louis vuitton The next six weeks favor him heavily. Why Santorum could pull off the upset in Illinois. Obama’s 17-minute, Guggenheim-directed, Hanks-narrated propagandtacular is now online. Republicans can do dramatic video too: Paul Ryan’s budget preview.louis vuitton outlet online Is the GOP experiencing over-saturation in the South? Santorum wants a broader war on porn than Bush pursued. Optimism about finding a good job hits a high since ’08. The high? A measly 19%. White House technology was frighteningly outdated in ’09: They went without e-mail for a quarter if the first 40 days and Rahm Emanuel’s computer had a floppy drive.fake louis vuitton And the Rutherford B. Hayes Presidential Center in Fremont, Ohio, did not take Obama’s slights lying down.
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2013年11月19日星期二

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So just how close to the tipping point ?? that’s the phase heard most over the past several days ?? is the U.fake uggsS.-led military mission in Afghanistan? Not close, according to the Obama Administration. Remember, this was the “good war” ?? justifiable in 9/11′s wake, unlike the invasion of Iraq two years later. So Administration officials were peddling it that way on Monday, following a week of riots and the killing of four U.louis vuitton neverfullS. troops after American soldiers at Bagram apparently mistakenly tossed Korans into a trash fire. “The policy remains one that is designed precisely to stabilize the Afghan government to the point where it can take over the security lead responsibility in its own country, which then allows U.S.fake louis vuitton forces to withdraw,” said White House spokesman Jay Carney. Added Pentagon spokesman George Little: “We work alongside thousands of Afghans every single day to ensure a better future for the Afghan people, and nothing that has happened over the past week is going to deter us from that goal.” Perhaps. Then why are the folks paid to analyze what??s going on at such odds: – a news analysis by Kevin Baron at the upper-crust National Journal (where you need forklifts to lift paragraphs because they are so crammed with facts and data) proclaims: Administration Will Weather Latest Afghan Storm ??ut then you check out the assessment from John Bennett of U.louis vuitton handbags for saleS. News & World Report (and Battleland has long had a warm spot for weekly newsmags), who declares: Koran Burning May Be Beginning of the End for Afghan War Bottom line: no one yet knows where the Afghan campaign is headed. The riots were declared in decline last weekend, but they roared back, along with the killing of two U.S.cheap gucci belts officers inside the Afghan interior ministry. That hast given chin-strokers like Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies a chance to weigh in: It has been a truly grim week, and one where these events raise questions about US strategy and the value of continuing with the current approach to the war??he past strategy is dead, and we desperately need to either decide on a workable “Transition” strategy for the future and then actually fund and implement it, or develop an honest exit strategy that will do minimal damage to the Afghan people and our national interest. And he’s an optimist. More telling is the assessment of Sergio Miller, a former British army officer with the Special Air Service.replica louis vuitton On Small Wars Journal, he details the U.S. war in Vietnam, and then superglues it to Afghanistan: By now, any reader familiar with the war in Afghanistan will have noticed parallels. Nobly and in good faith ?? it must be recognised – Washington set about supporting a corrupt government that could not stand on its own two feet; it tried to fix a country damaged by years of war, in the middle of another war; it tried to spread democracy, albeit at the end of an M16 barrel; it presided over continual, cosmetic name changes of organisations, programs and initiatives that could not alter the facts on the ground; it grew unsustainably large and dependent armed forces and an unreliable police force; and all of this cost almost 60,000 American lives and over $800 billion in 2010 prices, huge sums of which were squandered or stolen.loui vuitton? It is a wonder the Vietnam War Memorial does not weep tears. He asserts that Washington is repeating the errors of Vietnam in Afghanistan: They include: massive influxes of aid money distorting unsophisticated economies; an irresponsible belief that money does good when the manifest evidence of its contrary effect is unassailable; notions of ??doing good?? that run contrary to local truths; fashionable Western aid dogma colliding with a good old fashioned human propensity for corruption, embezzlement and fraud; a focus on promoting misleading aid ??success statistics?? or meeting arbitrary targets to satisfy domestic audiences and funding agendas that do not reflect the reality of the lives of locals who make up those statistics or targets; false, anecdotal or simply unproved metrics of ??success??; prestige programs with little local relevance; poor coordination; even lousier accountability and transparency; woeful auditing; a lack of responsibility allied to short-term attitudes in officials and contractors only looking to the end of their six month stints in-country; naivety and sometimes plain dishonesty over the scale of the waste; inconsistent and sometimes contradictory strategic goals; misunderstanding, competition and even antipathy between military, government and non-government organisations; abrupt switches of policy with different governments, military units or forceful personalities that confuse the locals; the incapacity of the recipient governments, at national and local level, to manage the aid effectively; a resigned tolerance of corruption; the promotion of programs and projects that cannot realistically be sustained; and, finally, giving up when failure can no longer be denied. Makes you wonder if the Afghanistan war memorial will end up weeping tears, too.
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After a long, long weekend in Michigan watching Romney and Santorum, I have no strong feelings about who is going to win–put a gun to my head and I’ll say Romney–but I do know that this Republican race has become a victorless crime, a mortal snooze.chanel handbags for sale Those few Republicans who are not so dispirited by this mess that they’re still willing to attempt spin try to make the argument that this is like the Democrats in 2008, a long, messy battle that won’t hurt the party in the fall. Wrong. This is the opposite of the Dems in 2008. That campaign was endlessly fascinating.louis vuitton neverfull You had two first-rate candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, trading substantive policy proposals along with some significant, but not devastating, barbs. Their contest invigorated the Democratic Party. At this point 4 years ago, Clinton seemed doomed after Obama swept through the February caucus states–but she bounced back on Super Tuesday and really hit her stride as a campaigner in Pennsylvania in April. More to the point, neither candidate took positions that would hurt them with the general electorate in the fall–and neither of them took stands that appeared to come from Mars.louis vuitton neverfull (MORE:?The Republican Race Looks Murky, in Michigan and Beyond) 2012 is the precise opposite: each of the Republicans–with the exception of Ron Paul–has diminished himself during the course of this campaign. Each has taken positions that will be difficult to sustain in a general election–all you need to do is listen to Romney or Santorum slamming “entitlements” in a country where Medicare and Social Security are the two most popular government programs. (Which is not to say that both programs shouldn’t be reformed, but Romney’s broad brush criticism of a liberal “Entitlement Society” versus a conservative “Opportunity Society” just doesn’t reflect life as most Americans live it.) And each of the candidates have made fools of themselves in ways that Obama and Clinton never did.fake uggs Newt Gingrich said he was hired as a consultant for Freddie Mac because he was a “historian.” He has said that Obama is the most dangerous and radical President in history. He has said this is the most important election since 1860. To which, one can only say: he is the most apoplectic presidential candidate in, well, eons! Romney’s gaffes–each an innocent blunder in its way–have slowly painted the picture of a clueless rich guy.replica chanel shoes And what can one say about Santorum? I’m on the record praising him for having the courage of his convictions, but, not to put too fine a point on it–the guy is something of a jerk. I mean, calling the President a snob because he posited a society where every kid should go to college? I know what Santorum meant–that we’ve oversold 4 year colleges and undersold technical training–but community colleges, where necessary tech training takes place, are colleges, too. And saying that John Kennedy’s speech to the Houston ministers made him want to vomit? That speech, arguably, made it possible for a Roman Catholic to be elected President. (PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.fake louis vuitton shoes 18-24) And so we are left with the following scenario: Even if Romney wins Michigan, he doesn’t gain all that much (if he loses, it’s panic city). If Romney wins, his momentum won’t last long. Next week, the Super Tuesday results are likely to splinter–with Romney winning his New England and Mormon West turf, Gingrich winning Georgia and Santorum looking strong in Ohio and much of the rest of the south and southwest. In the end, I suppose, Romney must still be considered the favorite to win the nomination.gucci handbag for sale But he has been dragged well right of the American mainstream, and he has proved himself a brittle campaigner who lacks the confidence even to answer questions from the public at his rallies–and who, when he slips, slips into $10,000 bets and twin cadillacs and rhapsodies on the joys of firing people. The sad thing is that Romney, especially, has a potentially important case to make against the economy as Barack Obama has chosen to run it. ?But at this point, the messenger is as damaged as a used Nash Rambler.
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In baseball, a tie goes to the runner.louis vuitton replica But in presidential primaries, a tie goes against the front runner. In a matter of hours, America will discover if Mitt Romney can pull out a squeaker in his native state of Michigan. As of this morning, Nate Silver, the whiz-kid of poll-based projections, pegs the state too close to call, with a 55% chance to win and a projected victory margin of just .7%.gucci outlet online That suggests that the most likely outcome is one we have long become accustomed to: A near tie. Romney could win by a point or lose by a point. He could split the popular vote, and come out ahead in the delegate count. He could win the popular vote, and split the delegate count.replica gucci shoes This in American politics in the 21st Century. Decisive victories are elusive. (MORE:?The Republican Race Looks Murky, in Michigan and Beyond) Romney will be far better off with a victory than a defeat, but he still may not find much solace in a close victory. At this point in the contest, victory, after all, is not all that matters.fake uggs He needs to regain the momentum he lost after New Hampshire and Florida. Here are three trends that are likely to continue if Romney just barely holds on in Michigan. Romney Will Remain Off-Message. Remember Iowa, when Romney had a message squarely focused on the general election: Obama had messed everything up, and Romney knew how to fix it.replica gucci shoes Those were the days. Today, Romney’s message is more often a defensive one, pointed inwardly at his own party. “I’m a solid conservative — a committed conservative with the kind of principles I think America needs,” he said on Fox News Sunday this week. This is a message that pulls him away from the general election.gucci outlet online It has been compounded by other tactical moves that Romney has been making since Iowa. He has tacked right on immigration, which will make winning the west more difficult in a general election, and he has come out hard against big labor, which will make winning independents in the midwest more difficult. Returning to the South for close contests on Super Tuesday will only exacerbate these problems. (PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.louis vuitton belts 18-24) Romney Will Struggle To Raise More Money. Through the end of last year, Romney has raised about 10% of his money in contributions of $200 or less. By contrast, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Barack Obama have brought in about half their money in small checks, a clear sign that they can motivate people to reach for their checkbooks. Though Romney’s total fundraising is respectable, he has a growing problem if the primary drags on without a clear shift in momentum.louis vuitton outlet online According to the Campaign Finance Institute, two thirds of Romney money in 2011 came from donors who have already maxed out on the $2,500 limit. They can’t give again. Meanwhile, Romney’s rivals will continue to be able to farm small-dollar supporters. Romney Will Struggle To Win New Friends.louis vuitton backpack for sale The good news from the new ABC-Washington Post poll released today is that Romney’s net favorability rating is unchanged from September of 2011–33%. The bad news is that his unfavorability rating is climbing as more Americans get to know him. While 31% of the country had a somewhat or strongly unfavorable view of Romney in September, 46% hold that view today. The shift has been recorded in all groups, among Democrats, Republicans and independents.fake louis vuitton While conservative Republicans can be expected to regroup with Romney, if he wins the nomination, the losses among moderates and independents may be harder to recover from. It’s one thing to be introduced as a winner. It’s another to be introduced as a guy who can’t quite win definitively. And first impressions can linger.fake uggs (MORE:?Why Latino Voters Will Swing the 2012 Election) All this could be solved if Romney surprises the pundits and pollsters, quiets the dissenters and reestablishes his dominance in the race. What he needs is for that party to rally around him, send new money to his campaign, allow him to pivot back to attacking Obama and give him a chance to reintroduce himself to the swing voters who will decide the next election. The last polls close in Michigan at 9 p.m.louis vuitton backpack for sale EST. Stay tuned.
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In the latest issue of TIME, author and award-winning Univision anchor Jorge Ramos wrote a column, ‘Why neither party is speaking our language,’ on the political isolation of Latino American voters in 2012.cheap gucci belts His piece, along with the cover story by Michael Scherer, generated a lot of discussion in the bilingual media. By request, we are providing a Spanish-language version of Ramos’ column. The original piece is available to subscribers online, and in the iPad and newsstand issues of the magazine. Nadie puede culpar a los latinos por sentirse solos o por sentir que viven en una naci坦n dentro de otra.fake ugg boots Tanto el partido Dem坦crata como el Republicano han fracasado en su intento de entender y conectar con nosotros. Hay 12 millones de votantes hispanos en busca de un candidato que los represente pero, hasta el momento, no lo han encontrado. El presidente Barack Obama rompi坦 una importante y simb坦lica promesa de campa単a. Y parece que los Republicanos est叩n haciendo un esfuerzo extraordinario para perder el voto hispano.chanel outlet Si los Republicanos no pueden conseguir al menos el 33 por ciento del voto hispano, no van a recuperar la presidencia. Desde Ronald Reagan, todos los candidatos Republicanos que obtuvieron m叩s de la tercera parte del voto latino ganaron su elecci坦n. Y todas las encuestas sugieren que Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum o Newt Gingrich no se podr鱈an acerca a esas cifras para noviembre. (PHOTOS: Being Latino in Arizona) Los Republicanos est叩n en camino de perder las elecciones presidenciales porque han rechazado todas las propuestas razonables para resolver el problema de la inmigraci坦n indocumentada.fake uggs Por primera vez en una generaci坦n, los Republicanos tendr叩n a un candidato presidencial que no apoya un camino a la ciudadan鱈a para los indocumentados. Reagan, Bush, padre e hijo, y McCain apoyaron un plan de legalizaci坦n. Pero el rechazo actual de los Republicanos a una reforma migratoria y a siquiera considerar el Dream Act para estudiantes es la f坦rmula perfecta para perder al grupo de votantes de m叩s r叩pido crecimiento en Estados Unidos. A pesar de lo anterior, el tema migratorio no es el m叩s importante para los latinos, seg炭n las encuestas.louis vuitton speedy Est叩n m叩s preocupados por conseguir un buen trabajo, escuelas para sus hijos y tener acceso a doctores y hospitales. Pero s鱈 hay que reconocer que el asunto de los inmigrantes indocumentados es muy, muy personal para nosotros. Es un s鱈mbolo. Si t炭 atacas a los indocumentados, nos est叩s atacando a todos.loui vuitton Ellos son nuestros vecinos y compa単eros de trabajo, sus hijos van a la escuela con nuestros hijos y pelean en las guerras por nosotros, toman los trabajos que nadie m叩s quiere, pagan impuestos y, en general, hacen de Estados Unidos un mejor pa鱈s. Pero empecemos por lo b叩sico. Por principio no les llamen ??ilegales??. Ning炭n ser humano es ??ilegal?? y hacerlo demuestra mucha hipocres鱈a y una doble moral.ugg boots outlet Nadie le llama ??ilegales?? a las compa単鱈as norteamericanas que contratan a indocumentados. Las palabras importan. Hay que cuidarlas. (MORE: Why the Latino Vote in Arizona Could Be Decisive in 2012) Segundo, nadie se cree los discursos de los Republicanos de que hay que asegurar a炭n m叩s la frontera con M辿xico.handbags louis vuitton El n炭mero de indocumentados ha bajado de 12 millones a 11 millones seg炭n el Pew Hispanic Center. Las ciudades a lo largo de la frontera con M辿xico son algunas de las m叩s seguras de toda la naci坦n. Y la idea de un muro es absurda. 多Para qu辿 quieren muros tan altos cuando cuatro de cada 10 indocumentados llegan por avi坦n, con una visa, y luego se queda? Tercero.louis vuitton replica Si su plan es hacer de los Estados Unidos un lugar tan represivo y tan poco hospitalario para los inmigrantes ??como las nuevas leyes antiinmigrantes han hecho de Alabama y Arizona- olv鱈dense del voto latino. Los Republicanos est叩n desaprovechando una oportunidad hist坦rica para recuperar el voto de los hispanos. Los latinos est叩n muy desilusionados con el presidente Barack Obama porque 辿l rompi坦 una importante promesa de campa単a. ??Lo que s鱈 puedo garantizar es que tendremos en el primer a単o una propuesta migratoria que yo pueda apoyar con fuerza??, me dijo en una entrevista en Denver el 28 de mayo del 2008.louis vuitton handbags for sale Pero rompi坦 su promesa. Los latinos le llama ??La promesa de Obama??. No cumpli坦 su palabra. Adem叩s de eso, el gobierno de Barack Obama es responsable por la separaci坦n de miles de familias hispanas cuyos hijos son ciudadanos de Estados Unidos.fake louis vuitton shoes Obama ha deportado a m叩s inmigrantes ??mas de 1.2 millones- que cualquier otro presidente en la historia. Y aunque 炭ltimamente sus pol鱈ticas migratorias se han concentrado en deportar a criminales, su programa de Comunidades Seguras ha afectado negativamente a muchos trabajadores inocentes que no han cometido ning炭n crimen. (MORE:?Exclusive Interview: Marco Rubio Challenges His Own Party on Latino Outreach) ??Los latinos??, Ronald Reagan dec鱈a, ??son Republicanos pero todav鱈a no lo saben??.gucci handbag for sale De hecho los latinos comparten con los Republicanos muchas cosas: se oponen al aborto, desconf鱈an de los gobiernos que abusan de su poder y tienen valores familiares y religiosos muy tradicionales. Los Republicanos podr鱈a haber usado estas similitudes con los latinos ??y atacar la contradictoria pol鱈tica migratoria de Barack Obama- para crear una nueva alianza con los hispanos. Pero no lo hicieron. Echaron todo a perder.louis vuitton backpack for sale Los latinos no tienen la representaci坦n pol鱈tica que se merecen. Deber鱈amos tener al menos 15 senadores y, sin embargo, solo tenemos dos. Pero con una poblaci坦n de m叩s de 50 millones, que crece a ritmos agigantados, muy pronto tendremos nuestro propio presidente hispano. Se supon鱈a que el 2012 iba a ser un a単o de esperanza para los hispanos.fake ugg boots Pero no sera as鱈. Tenemos que escoger entre un presidente que nos fall坦 y no cumpli坦 su palabra, y un candidato Republicano ??辿l que sea- que no nos entiende. Jorge Ramos es el conductor del Noticiero Univision, ganador de varios premios Emmy, y autor de 11 libros, incluyendo Tierra de Todos y Morir En El Intento.
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2013年11月13日星期三

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All politics is local, said Tip O?? Neill, the former Democratic Speaker of the House from Massachusetts.chanel outlet For years the adage shaped the tactics of campaigns, nudging candidates to tailor their rhetoric and platforms to the specific concerns of the constituents they hoped to represent. But it is no longer true, as writers like Matt Bai have observed. “Politics in the online age is increasingly borderless and can often be shaped more by national causes than by anything having to do with local constituents,” Bai wrote in the fall of 2010, as he observed Christine O’Donnell, a weak candidate with no?discernible?organization, surf a wave of anger at the status quo to a primary win. The nationalization of our politics was one of the major stories of the 2010 midterms, when political experience became a liability and races boiled down to which candidate could claim the outsider’s mantle.louis vuitton backpack for sale So it is again this year.? Though fought in a collection of states, each with its own parochial concerns, the Republican primary has been marked by national surges and swoons. With the exception of Mitt Romney, whose level of support has stayed relatively steady, the fortunes of the Republican candidates have swung dramatically. Over the past two months, there have been five lead changes in the national polls.handbags louis vuitton These swings have been triggered by two types of events: nationally televised debates and wins in state contests. Heading into South Carolina, Newt Gingrich was a broken candidate who hadn’t finished higher than fourth and lagged badly in the national polls. His win in the Palmetto State nudged voters nationwide to climb aboard his bandwagon. After Gingrich was pummeled in Florida, his support collapsed across the country.gucci handbag for sale (PHOTOS: A Look at Newt Gingrich’s Career) The upshot of a nationalized contest is that no state is safe. Michigan should be a cakewalk for Romney, a native son whose father was a venerated auto-company executive and popular governor. Romney won the state by nine points in 2008. He has a superior war chest and?the support of local party bigwigs.gucci handbag for sale Since June, he has visited Michigan 11 times. Rick Santorum has been to the state exactly once: Feb. 16, on the heels of a flurry of polls that showed him surging to an improbable lead. To local analysts, the specter of Romney’s losing Michigan is unthinkable.louis vuitton speedy “There isn’t any reason in the world Rick Santorum should be a factor in Michigan at all. He’s never been here. He has no connection to the state. He’s only seemingly doing well because he’s viewed as the latest anti-Romney in the party,” says Bill Ballenger, a former Republican lawmaker and Michigan political analyst.ugg boots outlet “But the nature of American politics has changed so radically. It’s become so nationalized and media-driven. You can do everything a campaign should be doing ?? and believe me, Romney has done that, while Santorum and [Ron] Paul and Gingrich have not ?? but if the narrative out there is ‘Anybody but Romney,’ even with Romney’s ties to the state, it may be difficult for him to overcome.” (VIDEO: What Comes Next After Mitt Romney’s Florida Primary Victory?) The battle in Michigan has been revealing not just for what it says about Romney’s struggles to connect with Republican voters but also for the way in which he and Santorum are looking beyond their immediate audience to drive a national message.louis vuitton speedy Last week, Romney doubled down on his opposition to the Obama Administration’s auto bailout by writing an editorial in the Detroit News that slammed the initiative as “crony capitalism on a grand scale” to benefit “Obama’s union allies.” Not to be outdone, Santorum used a speech at the Detroit Economic Club on Thursday to note that he too was against the auto bailout. Both candidates belabored the point in the face of the fact that in Michigan, labor is a dominant force, and the bailout remains popular. Both Chrysler and GM are resurgent.louis vuitton outlet online GM recorded its most profitable year in history in 2011, netting $7.6 billion. The nationalization of presidential politics doesn’t mean that local and regional demographics don’t matter. Romney has been strong in less-conservative states.louis vuitton handbags for sale Santorum has done well in the Midwest, where he frames himself as the grandson of a coal miner who understands the economic pain afflicting the region. Gingrich’s lone win was in the Deep South, where he hopes to resurrect his flagging campaign on March 6, Super Tuesday. “If any of the three loses our home state … you have, I think, very, very badly weakened candidacies,” the Georgian said on Sunday. “I was home campaigning for the last two days precisely to say to all of my friends back home, Georgia really matters.chanel outlet You cannot take this for granted.” (MORE: Election 2012: Can Anyone Stop Romney?) Romney too is desperate to avoid an ignominious defeat in his home state. “That won’t happen,” he said last week. Maybe not.ugg boots outlet But the fact that it could ?? and his strategy for sidestepping that embarrassment ?? says a lot about how politics is no longer a local affair.
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Public Policy Polling’s latest shows a tightening race in Michigan, Romney within four.chanel outlet “If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” says an anonymous Republican Senator. GOP pessimism takes over. Santorum risks being defined by sticky social issues. To wit: questioning Obama’s “theology,” opposition to pre-natal testing, prosecuting abortion doctors, and nostalgia for single-room schools.louis vuitton backpack for sale Santorum’s dog anecdote is funnier than Romney’s. Young Mitt at BYU. Arizona congressional candidate and Romney state co-chair Sheriff Paul Babeu comes out, denies he threatened to deport his Mexican boyfriend. Maryland’s on the brink of gay marriage as New Jersey’s governor vetoes it, which is sure to come up in the O’Malley-Christie presidential debates of 2016.louis vuitton neverfull And The Onion reports on conservation efforts in the nation’s capital.
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